ABSTRACT
This presentation highlights the role of uncertainty in facilitating
progress in systems modelling and simulation. Far from being an admission
of failure, uncertainty based reasoning helps to reduce the complexity
of systems and to increase the credibility of their models. While considering
the various physical and engineering systems, ranging from galaxies and
star clusters to urban traffic systems, the presentation attempts to discuss
the relevance of various aspects of uncertainty that are pertinent within
the context of these systems. It is argued that the recent research into
the meaning of uncertainty as a multi-dimensional entity has refined the
intuitive and philosophical notions that have withstood well the test of
time.
1. BACKGROUND
2. UNCERTAINTY AND INFORMATION
- Confidence Limits Analysis in water systems
- Confidence Limits Analysis in traffic systems
3. PROBABILISTIC MEASUREMENT OF UNCERTAINTY
4. PROBABILITY MEETS INTUITION - PLAUSIBILITY AND BELIEF
5. GIVE ME A CLUE - NONSPECIFICITY
6. THE CASE OF YES AND NO - VAGUENESS
8. CONCLUSIONS
9. Bibliography
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